Here in Maryland, I had

Here in Maryland, I had expected Kathleen Kennedy Townsend to open a lead over her Republican gubernatorial opponent Bob Ehrlich following her fiercely negative campaigning. It hasn’t happened. This report from the Washington Post shows that the two are dead even in the latest poll, each with 47 percent. Under these circumstances, the Post seems clearly correct in stating that the outcome will depend on “turnout.” With whites favoring Ehrlich by a 58-38 margin and blacks favoring Townsend by 85-7, black turnout, which has fluctuated dramatically in past gubernatorial races here, will tell the tale. My guess is that black turnout, either actual or “constructive,” will give Townsend the victory. But my pessimism may just be the result of a lifetime of witnessing Democratic victories in this state.

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