The Minneapolis Star Tribune has released its latest Minnesota Poll; the headline trumpets the claim that “Support Shifts to Mondale,” while the body of the story says that “Dramatic political developments since Wellstone’s death Friday have had little effect on voters’ leanings in the U.S. Senate race.” I guess the Strib’s headline writers just can’t restrain themselves. The poll says that Mondale leads Coleman by 47% to 39%. The Trunk dissected the Minnesota Poll’s methodology in a series of posts a few days ago; the bottom line is that the Strib’s poll appears designed to overstate Democrats’ support by about five per cent. Taking that bias into account, the results of this poll are essentially the same as the two polls taken by Republican pollsters over the last 48 hours. The race, in other words, is at present a dead heat, as it was before Wellstone’s demise. The Strib’s poll also confirms the finding of the Republicans’ polls that the Wellstone situation is not benefiting other Democratic candidates, specifically Roger Moe, who is trailing Tim Pawlenty in the race for Governor. The Strib’s results confirm that Tim Penny has fallen out of contention, and their poll’s four point lead for Pawlenty probably translates into a seven to nine point lead in reality.
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