I’m heading for the airport and will be in Alaska for the next week. I’ll post a little when I have the opportunity, but Deacon and the Trunk will be on the job, so stay tuned to Power Line for election developments. Before I go, here are my predictions for the key Senate races:
New Hampshire: Shaheen in a squeaker.
Colorado: This was Allard’s race to win, but I don’t think he’s gotten the job done. Strickland by a point or two.
Missouri: Talent relatively easily.
South Dakota: Thune over Johnson by the narrowest of margins.
Arkansas: Pryor over Hutchinson; late-breaking news about Pryor’s illegal household help gives Hutchinson a lift, but not quite enough.
New Jersey: Forrester closes a little, but nowhere near enough; Lautenberg by eight points.
Georgia: Chambliss closes hard, but it’s Cleland by two points.
Texas: The Democrats were dreaming on this one; Cornyn by ten.
Minnesota: Coleman, and it’s not as close as people think: Coleman 50%, Mondale 45%, others 5%.
If we add that up, the net result leaves the Senate exactly where it is now. I hope I’m wrong about New Hampshire and Colorado; I don’t think the Republicans will do any worse than the above scenario, and they could do better.
As to the other Minnesota races, Pawlenty should be elected Governor relatively easily: Pawlenty 40%, Moe 34%, Penny 26%. Mark Kennedy overcomes the sleaziest campaign within memory and wins 55%-45%. My biggest concern is about our friend John Kline, whose opponent, Bill Luther, has launched a fraudulent last-ditch advertising blitz in which he tries to portray Kline as a tax-raiser and himself as the low-tax candidate. Unbelievable. Most people think Luther’s strategy with this late ad campaign is to drive voters toward the fictitious “No New Taxes Party” candidate–actually a Democratic activist who filed, with the encouragement of Luther’s campaign, to siphon off conservative votes. I think Kline will overcome Luther’s slimy tactics, but narrowly: 51% to 49%.
The Coleman/Mondale debate is beginning in about two hours. I’m sure the Trunk will post his impressions. As I understand the format, most of the questions will be asked by members of the audience, who are activists from one party or the other. It will be interesting to see whether and how those questions are filtered through a moderator; if the audience members are questioning the candidates directly, we’ll see hostile, aggressive Democrats attacking Coleman and polite, respectful Republicans questioning Mondale. Stay tuned for the Trunk’s report.
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