Voting the pocketbook

Donald Lambro of the Washington Times finds that “America’s long-brewing recovery finally seems to be boosting President Bush’s economic job approval numbers, and eroding Sen. John Kerry’s No. 1 domestic issue.” Lambro’s report provides both polling and economic data that support this claim. He concludes that “if next month’s Labor Department employment report is anything like March’s blowout jobs numbers, look for a 10-point lead in Mr. Bush’s election polls and forecasts of larger gains for the GOP in the House and Senate.”
On the other hand, there is the small matter of Iraq. I’m not sure a 10-point lead is realistic unless the situation improves on the ground there. Still, the public seems more willing to cut the president slack on the international front than on the economy, which is somewhat ironic because a president probably more has more control over foreign policy outcomes than he does over short-term economic outcomes.

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