The conventional wisdom has been that despite a constant barrage of criticism of President Bush in the press and purportedly bad news from Iraq, John Kerry has failed to gain significantly in the polls. However, a review of polling in the battleground states collected at Real Clear Politics casts doubt on this assumption.
In most of the battleground states, polling done after the middle of May shows movement in Kerry’s direction; in some cases, sharp movement. One possible exception is Ohio, where poll data have been troubling for a while. The latest Mason-Dixon survey has Bush with a six-point lead. On the other hand, the most recent Zogby poll, taken over almost the same time period, shows Kerry ahead by five.
UPDATE: Our friend Captain Ed also looks at the polls, focusing on the biased sample used in the recent CBS/New York Times poll which purported to show President Bush’s job approval declining sharply.
UPDATE by BIG TRUNK: Captain Ed writes:
Just an FYI, the Zogby polls that just came out are Web-based polling — not scientific polls. It would be like having a poll on Power Line from pollhosting.com. I trashed the CBS poll this morning on CQ and noticed that about Zogby, although I don’t mention it.