Can "Anybody" Beat Bush?
Partisan Democrats like to say that they are for "Anybody But Bush." The Kerry campaign seems to be taking them at their word, as Kerry is running a head-down campaign, doing little to sell himself to the American people and counting on the daily pounding that Bush takes in the press to launch him to victory as the only alternative. Thus the Democrats seem determined to test the old political adage that you can't beat somebody with nobody.
As Sam Dealey notes, this worries some Democrats:
"Kerry's weakness is the same as Gore's," says a former campaign manager to a Democratic primary candidate. "It's a top-heavy, consultant-based campaign. You're looking at a lot of pundits and consultants, and a lack of a grassroots organization and field operation in these battleground states."Part of the problem, these Democrats say, is that the Kerry campaign's approach relies too heavily on public disfavor with Bush.
So far, at least, Kerry has failed to gain significant ground in areas where Bush has shown weakness. While support for Bush on Iraq is down considerably, for example, the president still maintains healthy leads over Kerry in public perceptions of who is best suited to conduct the war and foreign policy. Meanwhile, Kerry's own issue strengths — health-care, Social Security and education, for example — are traditional back-burner mainstays for the Democratic Party.
As Dealey points out, the Bush campaign has a strong grass-roots organization in place, and is determined to do a better job than the Democrats of turning out its voters. The Republicans are also determined to do all they can to clamp down on voter fraud.
It has often been remarked that the Democrats' control over the press is a mixed blessing. Too often, Democrats are lulled into overconfidence by the nearly-unanimous support they enjoy in the newspapers and on television. It often comes as a rude shock when they are reminded, once again, that a large majority of Americans don't take their cue from the New York Times.
Moreover, as we noted yesterday, the most recent polling data show a trend in Bush's direction, with the President enjoying, for the moment, a huge lead over Kerry on foreign policy and a substantial lead over Kerry on the economy. These numbers will fluctuate, obviously, based on events. But if Kerry continues his present strategy of running as the not-Bush, and doesn't do more to present himself positively to the American people, he will be at the mercy of events should the last tide before November's election flow in a Republican direction.
