Memogate Hurting Kerry?

Reader Bud Caldwell points out that in the latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll, released just a few minutes ago, President Bush has jumped out to a nearly five-point lead over John Kerry. Bud wonders whether this represents, at least in part, reaction to the CBS forgery scandal.
I doubt it. Rasmussen’s results have been a little odd lately, as he alone among pollsters has not shown the President with much of a post-convention bounce. Today’s results (representing a three-day rolling average) are more in line with what most pollsters are getting.
Rasmussen has, however, done some interesting polling on Memogate. Surprisingly, 38% of voters say they are following the story “very closely,” while another 34% say “somewhat” closely. Voters’ opinions vary, of course, with party affiliation, but a 38% to 27% plurality believes the memos were forged. Among those following the story “very closely,” 56% say they are forgeries, and only 27% believe they are authentic.
These numbers are two days old, and will presumably continue to worsen for the Kerry campaign as more information seeps out.

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