Most of the weekend’s polling news is pretty good. The Washington Post tracking poll shows Bush leading by 51 percent to 46 percent. This is the same lead he had in the Post’s first poll, eight days ago, before the lead virtually vanished a few days later, presumably due to the first debate. Similarly, today’s Rasmussen tracking poll has Bush up 49.5 percent to 45.5 percent. This is essentially the same lead (49.0 to 45.4) that Bush held on October 3, and that lead too disappeared in the middle of last week.
Zogby, on the other hand, has the race a dead heat, with Kerry at 46 percent and Bush at 45. If one looks at the Real Clear Politics poll round-up, Zogby seems to something of an outlier. Even so, his finding that Kerry is leading Bush 49 to 44 among newly registered voters is not heartening, particularly since The Washington Times reports a record-setting surge of new voter registration in the battleground states. Of course, Zogby does not offer findings on the preferences of newly registered voters in these states.
HINDROCKET adds: Zogby is becoming even more of an outlier, as this morning’s tracking poll has Kerry up by three points. I’ve been skeptical about Zogby ever since Sept. 11, but if memory serves, he came closest to calling the 2000 election, so his survey is not to be regarded lightly.
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