I’ve been assuming that Ralph Nader wouldn’t be a factor in next month’s election, both because of the difficulty he has had getting on ballots in many states, and because the polls show his support to be at very low levels. However, the dust has now cleared, and, as today’s New York Times reports, Nader may yet be a factor.
The bottom line is that Nader will be on the ballot in at least 30 states. These include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Six of these are states where Nader drew his strongest support four years ago: Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin. If, as some believe, the election is decided in the Upper Midwest, Nader’s presence could possibly tip the balance in Wisconsin, Iowa or Minnesota.
While Nader’s national numbers are dismal, the chart below shows that in a number of key states, he is drawing significant support:
So Nader may well be a significant factor after all.
Note, by the way, the source for the Times data: our friends at Real Clear Politics.
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