Would That It Were True

Real Clear Politics notes this Detroit News poll that shows President Bush with a four-point lead in Michigan, 47% to 43%. The poll, of 400 likely voters, has a five-point margin of error.
If Bush carries Michigan, the election is over. But this poll is too far out of line with the other Michigan data to be credible. The only way I’ll believe that Michigan is actually close is if the candidates start spending time there. The striking fact about the current poll data is how close they are to the 2000 results. After four years, we seem to have returned almost exactly to where we started. More about this later.

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