The big picture narrows

The raw numbers for President Bush in Minnesota and Iowa are pretty bad. I have no idea whether they reflect a geographic bias against Bush, but if they don’t then Bush may really need to win both Florida and Ohio. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Bush looks good in Florida (see below). The situation in Ohio is less clear, but Kerry Spot thinks the news from there is encouraging. Michael Barone on Fox is more cautious, but thinks we may have a good idea within the next hour.
UPDATE: Florida is just about in the bag. Kerry’s lead in Iowa is only about 25,000 with 62 percent of the vote counted. Bush is 15,000 down in Wisconsin with about half the vote counted.

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