Belmont Club analyzes what the big Hezbollah demonstration in Lebanon means and what might happen next. Hezbollah’s leader has come out strongly in favor of the Syrian occupation. The question is whether Syria, via Hezbollah, will bring on a civil war to preserve its status in Lebanon. Wretchard thinks that “while Hezbollah is prepared to threaten civil war, they are far less anxious to actually start it.” Why? Because Syria and Hezbollah “are objectively far weaker in 2005 than they were in 1975. There is no guarantee that Syria and Hezbollah would emerge victorious from a full-scale civil war and every probability they would lose it.”
Austin Bay is less sanguine and wonders whether the shooting war has already started.
UPDATE: Several readers question Wretchard’s statement that Hezbollah are far weaker now than in 1975. They note that Hezbollah succeeded against Israel not that long ago.
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