This article by Jacques-Henri David, head of the Deutsche Bank Group in France, appeared in Figaro on Thursday. It elaborates on a study of the global economy in the year 2020 that was recently completed by the Deutsche Bank Group:
In 2020, the United States will remain the world superpower, with a total GNP of approximately $17 trillion to $18 trillion. Thanks to its dynamic demographics (1% annual population growth), a productivity and a competitiveness amongst the best in the world (currently second in the world and far out in front of Germany (13th) or France (26th) according to statistics from the World Economic Forum), and thanks also to its constant drive to create and innovate, and with flexibility due to the mobility of its labor force, the United States will maintain a clear advantage over China and India and will widen the gap with Europe. With average per capita salaries of approximately $55,000, the income of the average American in 2020 will be 1.5 to 2 times greater than that of a European; five times higher than that of a Chinese and nine times more than that of an Indian (approximately $6,000 per capita).
In Europe, Germany, France, along with Italy and the United Kingdom, should lose ground in the world competition with a GNP per country of about $2 to 2.5 trillion.
While European countries will remain rich in terms of per capita income (about $32,500), their relative weight will decline with their demographics and weaker growth (on average, almost half as much as the United States). Countries like Spain or Ireland will experience a higher level of development than the European average, thanks to a wider opening of their economies to the outside, the dynamism of their investments, good population growth forecasts and effective immigration policies.
There are still many in the Democratic Party whose goal is to reshape America’s economy to make it look more like Western Europe’s. As the United States pulls farther and farther ahead of Europe economically, this idea appears more and more perverse. With socialism defunct and the “Third Way” being left in the economic rear, it is hard to see what remains, ideologically speaking, for the American Left.
Via Watching America.