Don’t Bet On the Macacacard

My friend Bob Cunningham points out that Intrade makes a market in political futures. Despite the smears that have lately been directed at Senator George Allen, the Intrade market now puts the probability of his winning in November at 69%. That number is up an astonishing eight points today, I’m not sure why.

Meanwhile, the market rates the Republicans’ chances of retaining control of the Senate at 80%, and of the House at 56%.

UPDATE: This chart shows the odds on the Republicans retaining control of the House over the last month; click to enlarge:

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