How will it play in Peoria?
Here's Dick Meyer's take on the Foley scandal. I disagree with his claim that the House leadership covered-up the scandal, but I want to focus instead on the question of how this matter will affect the election next month.
I'm not convinced that it will. The battle for control of the House will come down to individual races in which Republican incumbents are being challenged. I doubt that Rep. Foley's misconduct or the ins-and-outs concerning Speaker Hastert's response will have much bearing on the decision of voters in, say, Kentucky, Connecticut or Indiana to return, say, Anne Northup, Christopher Shays, or Chris Chicola to Congress. The fate of these candidates presumably will turn on their individual popularity in the district and how voters believe they and their country are faring (and yes, Dick, this includes the war). In the unlikely event that swing voters have any thoughts about the latest scandal beyond disgust with Foley, those thoughts are unlikely to affect whether want their incumbent to continue representing them. Republican "values" voters may find fault with Hastert, but not to the point that they will want him replaced by Nancy Pelosi.
I said some time ago that the Democrats more likely than not will win the House, and I still believe that. But, unless the outcome ends up turning on Foley's district, I'd be a little surprised if the Foley scandal plays a role bring about a Democratic victory.
UPDATE: In New Mexico, Rep. Heather Wilson is in a tight race. She was on the House Page Board. But I'm not aware of any evidence that Foley's misconduct was raised with the committee, as opposed to just its leader. So it's far from clear that New Mexico voters are going to blame Wilson for this. I imagine the Dems will try to get mileage out of the matter -- apparently they already are. But for voters familiar Wilson, as most voters in her district are -- that may be as likely to backfire as to hurt her.
