Twin Cities ABC affiliate KSTP has released a SurveyUSA poll showing the Minnesota gubernatorial race essentially tied, while Amy Klobuchar maintains a strong lead over Mark Kennedy. The SurveyUSA poll reflects “likely voters.” In Minnesota every vote counts in this election.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, by contrast, reflects results of all adult respondents weighted under a secret formula to reflect the likelihood of the respondents’ actually voting. In the words of the Star Tribune, “all adults [with a few exceptions] are likely voters.” And in the land of Minnesota’s angry humorist, they are also all above average.
The Star Tribune’s most recent Minnesota Poll was conducted October 6-11 and showed Democrat Mike Hatch with a wide lead over incumbent Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty. This was at the height of voter outrage over the Mark Foley scandal. October 6 was the date many people were speculating that House Speaker Dennis Hastert might resign.
Unlike many polls, the Minnesota Poll does not weigh to balance for partisan designation and does not publish the poll internals. I understand that the partisan make-up of the last Minnesota Poll was 39 percent DFL, 28 percent GOP, 33 percent independent/none/other. I think it is unlikely that, even then, there was an 11 point advantage for the Democrats in Minnesota.
Today the Minneapolis Star Tribune unleashes a torrent of endorsements of bad Democrats for Congress including Keith Ellison, Patty Wetterling and Coleen Rowley. At least they don’t invoke “diversity” as a rationale.
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