Northup or Northdown?

I guess the polls close early in Kentucky because in every off-year election practically the first thing I hear on election night is something like this:

Democrats had hoped to defeat Ann Northup, the popular incumbent from a predominantly Democratic Louisville district, and if they had it probably would have meant a long night for Republicans. But Northup has held off her Democratic challenger and will be re-elected with an estimated 52 percent of the vote.

So how does it look for Northup this time? It depends on which poll you read. A Survey USA poll has her trailing John Yarmuth by 52-44. But a “Bluegrass” poll taken a little earlier for the local newspaper has her leading 48-42.
Northup may squeak through again, but even if she does I think it will be a long night for the Republicans.

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