Is Romney's dream scenario a winning scenario?
There was good polling news for Mitt Romney today. A new Rasmussen poll has him up big in New Hampshire, with 32 percent compared to 17 percent for Rudy Giuliani and 16 percent for John McCain. Meanwhile, in Iowa a new Zogby poll puts Romney at 31 percent, doubling Mike Huckabee’s support and tripling that of Fred Thompson and Giuliani. While some folks don’t think much of Zogby’s polls, it seems clear that Romney is the strong favorite in Iowa at this point.
Things can change quickly, of course, but just for fun let’s assume that Romney wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and let’s throw in another early state or two (say, South Carolina and/or Michigan). Would this make Romney unstoppable?
Lots of astute folks seem to think so, but I’m not sure. Much would depend, I suspect, on how Romney is faring in the head-to-head match-up with Hillary Clinton at that point. Right now, most polls show Clinton defeating Romney decisively, Giuliani and McCain do better. If that’s still the situation even after Romney wins a few primaries, one can easily imagine a backlash against Romney among Republican voters in other states.
Recall that Howard Dean plummeted in 2004 when Democratic voters suddenly became fearful about his electability. They turned from Dean to John Kerry even though there was no strong evidence that Kerry had a good shot of unseating President Bush either. This happened prior to the Iowa caucuses, but there’s no reason to believe that, if it had not occurred then it would not have occurred later. The impetus was fear that Dean wouldn’t run well. If anything, that fear would have been magnified had Dean won a primary or two without convincing Democrats he could defeat Bush. Such might also be the case with Romney, though in fairness to the former Massachusetts governor, he largely lacks Dean’s flakiness.
Other factors will also come into play if Romney wins the first few primaries. One is the possibility of candidates dropping out. John McCain seems to have considerable antipathy towards Romney. If McCain doesn’t do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, one can imagine him dropping out of the race and endorsing Giuliani. Of course, one can also envisage Thompson and Huckabee dropping out, which would help Romney. Indeed, Romney’s dream scenario is probably one in which only Giuliani and Romney are left and in which Romney has the momentum of a few early victories.
But most Republicans really want to win in 2008, and so it may be quite difficult for Romney to seal the deal with Republicans unless either he gets significantly closer to Hillary in the head-to-head or Hillary pulls away from Giuliani and McCain.
