Can Romney maintain his conservative support?
Jennifer Rubin, a Giuliani supporter, claims that "little by little, the attacks by Mr. Romney’s opponents are eating away at his painstakingly constructed conservative persona." Rubin wonders "whether, by the time the Iowa caucuses roll around, there’s going to be anything left" of that persona.
It's ceratinly possible that the attacks on Romney, some of which are justified and some of which are ridiculous, may take a toll. As I noted here Romney's support in Iowa and New Hampshire has been pretty stable for some time, but a brand new Rasmussen poll shows some slippage in Iowa. However, the same polling organization finds Romney gaining support nationally and his RCP national average has also been trending slowly upward.
In fact, it may be Giuliani who is losing traction with conservative Republicans. His national numbers have declined a bit over the course of the year, and in conservative South Carolina, he's fallen to fifth place in the latest Clemson poll, having lost half of his support since August.
Rubin opines that "the details of [Romney's] Massachusetts record are problematic, especially in New Hampshire, where many voters are Massachusetts transplants or live within the Boston media market." In her view, "the more specific the arguments get, the worse they are for Mr. Romney." But if Romney's Massachusetts record is so problematic, how does Rubin explain the solid lead he has held from the outset in a state full of Massachusetts transplants?
To the extent that conservatives must choose between two candidates who governed as centrists, they may well prefer the one who now commits to conservative positions down the line to the one who says, in essence, "I was a great mayor; take me as you find me."
