Recalculating

That’s what our GPS system says to me, in a fairly disgusted tone, when I fail to follow its directions. If this blog had a GPS system, I might be hearing that word, in that tone, about now.
Not long ago, I sketched a scenario in which Mitt Romney loses in Iowa but wins in New Hampshire and then goes on to capture the Republican nomination. Romney lived up to the first prong of this scenario, but may very well fail to fulfill the second. Let’s assume he does lose in New Hampshire. What then?
Two scenarios come to mind. In the first, Romney wins a week later in Michigan. In this scenario, he now has a win and two second place finishes plus, perhaps, a good showing in the Wyoming caucuses. He’s still viable, but so are McCain (assuming a strong second in Michigan), Huckabee, and Giuliani (Thompson may be too if he does well in South Carolina). With four or five viable candidates, the race remains wide open. There’s even the possibility of that greatest of all long-shots, a “brokered convention.”
In the second scenario, Romney fails to revive his fortunes in Michigan, where many independents and even a few Democrats participate on the Republican side and help put McCain over the top. Romney is now a spent force and let’s assume that Thompson is too. Now, it’s a three person race. Huckabee can’t get to 30 percent in most states, especially the large ones, so he comes up short. The contest comes down to McCain and Giuliani.
Who wins that one?
Recalculating.

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