Hillary Clinton, in the conventional wisdom, has gone from inevitable nominee to toast in a short time. The delegate count, however, is virtually even between Hillary and Barack Obama. So, does she still have a chance?
Michael Barone surveys the remaining primaries and caucuses, does the math, and concludes that she still has a chance:
My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in “pledged” delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that’s a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can’t carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can’t carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.
To comment on this post, go here.