As I observed here, the New York Times is of the view (at least for purposes of public consumption) that the California Supreme Court’s ruling on gay marriage won’t hurt Obama, and may even hurt McCain. But poll results suggest otherwise.
In a poll taken by Gallup about a week ago, but before the California court ruled, 16 percent of those surveyed said that a presidential candidate must share his or her views on gay marriage. About 50 percent said it would be one of many important issues. Only 33 percent said it didn’t matter. The same poll found that respondents opposed gay marriage by 56 to 40.
McCain’s views on gay marriage may not diverge much from the ones Obama presents. However, there is good reason to believe that McCain’s judicial appointees would approach the issue quite differently from a legal standpoint than Obama’s would.
Since a clear majority of voters opposes gay marriage and considers the issue important, it’s certainly possible that the issue will play a significant role in the event of a close election. If so, the beneficiary almost surely will be McCain.
Via Bill Otis.
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