What’s Going On?

Polling in the Presidential race is getting stranger. The latest Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll has Obama up by only two points. Rasmussen shows the race tightening from eight points to six. At the same time, the Gallup Poll has Obama jumping out to an unprecedented eleven-point margin.

I’m pretty sure the Gallup result is an outlier, but beyond that it’s hard to say what is happening. Either there is a tremendous amount of volatility in the electorate, or the pollsters are using pretty drastically different assumptions. At the moment, it is hard to be sure which way the tide is flowing.

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