On Monday, Scott Rasmussen reported that in a telephone survey of likely voters (I assume it’s a likely voter poll, although the report doesn’t say that specifically), Mitt Romney is running even with Barack Obama, 45-45, in a preview of their possible 2012 matchup. This was, of course, before the very bad week that Obama has just experienced. It is striking that, after a mere six months in office, the ostensible political powerhouse can’t do better against last year’s Republican runner-up.
Across the country, potential Republican Presidential candidates are deciding whether to get into the 2012 race. A key factor is how likely Obama is to be re-elected. It’s ridiculously early, of course, and anything can happen. But the reality of contemporary politics dictates that anyone who wants to be a serious candidate in 2012 needs to be setting up a campaign apparatus now. And, having seen Obama in action for six months, the judgment top Republicans are making is that he is likely to be a one-termer. Thus, Presidential campaigns are quietly being assembled. The candidates can only be encouraged by poll results like the one Rasmussen reported on Monday.
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