A meaningless prediction

As John noted last night, the President’s Economic Report predicts that the unemployment rate will be 8.2 percent in 2012. A year ago, the Obama economic team predicted that unemployment would peak at about that rate if Congress passed the stimulus package.
The truth is that no one has any clear idea what the unemployment rate will be in 2012. There are only two kinds of predictions about this matter — honest guesses and politically motivated ones. My honest guess is that the unemployment rate will drop below 8.2 percent before 2012.