For incumbent Senators, more danger ahead

This coming week will feature some fascinating Senate primary elections. Two incumbent Democrats — Arlen Specter and Blanche Lincoln — face the possibility of career-ending results. Specter has fallen behind challenger Joe Sestak in the polls, and the smart money is heavily on Sestak. I’ve already composed the title of my post on Specter’s defeat: “The Worm Has Been Turned Out In Pennsylvania.”
Lincoln continues to lead Lt. Gov. Bill Halter by about 10 percentage points. However, she is not at 50 percent in the polls, and a third party candidate, D.C. Morrison, may do well enough to force a run-off. Morrison’s main virtue seems to be his ability to tell home-spun jokes. But, as political virtues go, that’s not a bad one. It has Morrison commanding enough support, at least in the polls, to present the possibility of a run-off.
Lincoln would, I imagine, be favored in the run-off. But it might cost her another $2 million or so. This, in turn, might further weaken her chances in the fall against the likely Republican nominee, John Boozman, who already leads both Lincoln and Halter in the polls.

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