Scott Rasmussen samples party identification, and finds Democrats and Republicans in a virtual dead heat, at 35.4%-33.0%. This graphic, showing party identification in June 2008, June 2009 and June 2010, tells the story:
Do the math: two years ago the Dems were + 9.5; one year ago they were + 6.7; today they are + 2.4. If that trend line holds, a year from now Republicans will outnumber Democrats.
Obviously, peeling away Democrats gets harder as you approach nearer the core, those who have serious amounts of money at stake in Democrat rule. But here is the lesson I would draw: the media like to characterize the nation’s mood as anti-incumbent, and to some degree that is true. It is also true that today’s conservative resurgence, as embodied in the Tea Party movement and related phenomena, is principled, not partisan. But equally true, and perhaps more important, is the fact that many millions of Americans are rebelling against the disastrous leadership of Barack Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, and understand that the Republican Party represents the nation’s best hope for recovery.
PAUL adds: Meanwhile, in a new Gallup poll, 46 percent of unaffiliated registered voters said they prefer the Republican in their congressional district’s House race, compared with 34 percent who lean toward the Democrat. The math is getting very bad for the Democrats.
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