So, are the Democrats going to recapture the House this year? According to Politico, it depends on whom you believe. If you believe “the media,” then the Republican House majority “is on a razor’s edge or the tide is turning in favor of the Democrats.” But if you believe “the political class,” then the Democrats probably can’t win back the House in this election.
I’m inclined to believe David Wasserman, the House analyst for the Cook Political Report, whose views Politico summarizes as follows:
According to his own detailed assessment of the House map, Wasserman doesn’t see enough evidence at this point to suggest Democrats are poised to win back control.
He points to the party’s “impressive ability to keep pace in the money chase at both the candidate and committee level,” but reports there’s no sign of a national wave that would throw the House GOP out of power.
Not only that, a dozen of the most vulnerable House Republicans saw their districts shored up in redistricting. Then there is the open seat issue: Democrats must defend 20 of them, compared to 16 for the GOP.
. . . .If the election were held today, Democrats would likely score a net gain of around five seats in the House. But since they are playing slightly more offense and thus have more upside, our current estimate is that Democrats will pick up five to 15 seats in November, still short of the 25 they need.