Lately, we’ve seen a fair amount of bad polling news, from the pro-Romney perspective. The most notable bad news comes from the two polls that Scott referred to earlier today: the CBS/NYT/Quinippiac poll of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and the latest Rasmussen poll that has Obama leading nationally by 47-44. Romney had consistently been leading Obama in Rasmussen polls.
But don’t worry. Dick Morris tells us that “the trend line is distinctly pro-Romney.” Indeed, “the real story” is that “Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week.” So ignore the polls that suggest otherwise. They are “at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias.” Look for Romney to carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote, and thus to capture an electoral vote margin that approaches the one Obama enjoyed in 2008.
But didn’t Dick Morris also tell us that the Republicans would pick up 100 or so House seats in the 2010 election? Didn’t he predict that the Republicans would gain control of the Senate that same year? And didn’t he write a book in 2005 called Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race?
Morris is right to this extent: not all polls are reliable and pro-Democrat media bias can spill over into political forecasting. But pro-Republican bias can have the same effect, and some in conservative media may have a personal agenda that drives them to make less than trustworthy forecasts. Whatever is the case with Dick Morris, his track record is full of over-the-top predictions that didn’t pan out.
This doesn’t mean that the election won’t break Romney’s way. That might well happen, once Romney ramps up his ad campaign and voters focus more single-mindedly on what traditionally matters most in these elections — how they are faring under the current regime.
But to pretend that the race is already breaking for Romney is wishful thinking, at best.
STEVE adds: Morris is the most overrated political analyst in the country, and it is a blot on Fox News that they have him on so often (though note that he is never included in Fox’s most serious news show–Special Report. His absence from the panel there tells you a lot.)