UMass/Boston Herald has been an outlier in this race before. In September, it found Brown ahead by 4 points at a time when Warren was ahead in nearly every other poll.
This doesn’t that the UMass/Boston Herald results should be discounted. However, I fear that the pro-Obama tide in Massachusetts may well see Warren through.
I believe that Romney will outperform Allen in Virginia, perhaps by 2 points as NBC/WSJ/Marist suggests. I also believe that Romney is likely to win Virginia by 2 points or more. So this race still strikes me as a tossup.
Brown remains the favorite in this race. However, a very strong Republican showing on Election Day could produce an upset.