At Mosaic, Michael Doran infers the Obama administration’s intentions regarding Iran’s nuclear program from the obvious consequences of the administration’s actions. I think it’s the only approach that makes sense. In honor of one of Obama’s quotable quotes, Doran’s column is titled “I don’t bluff.” The title/quote by itself is a valuable reminder of how Obama has flooded the zone with BS here as elsewhere.
In order to make the necessary inferences regarding Obama’s intentions, we have to understand what is going on. Among recent pieces that make valuable contributions to understanding I would cite Lee Smith’s “As George Kennan inspired Truman’s foreign policy, now Stephen Walt inspires Obama’s,” Caroline Glick’s “Iran’s bomb in the basement” and Elliott Abrams’s “A misleading Cold War analogy.” Each one of these pieces is well worth your time.
Doran concludes that “[w]hile denying it vehemently, [Obama] has put the United States on a glide path to accepting a nuclear Iran—bluffing all the way.” True, but kind of obvious. We postulated that back in November, when the terms of the final draft of the deal were still under discussion (in the post “Occam’s razor applied to the Iran talks”). Applying Occam’s razor to the Iran deal, I would go one step beyond Doran’s analysis. Obama not only accepts a nuclear Iran, he supports it and is happy to extend financing on favorable terms.