You don’t really need to read Denniston’s post (though I recommend you do) to figure out where things stand. Four Justices seem ready to strike down the offending Obamacare rule; four seem ready to uphold it; and Justice Kennedy will decide the case.
You will be equally unsurprised to learn that Kennedy is playing Hamlet:
Kennedy worried over the plight of female workers, and he suggested that their interests could be protected with little cost to their employers. . . .[Then] he worried over the plight of corporations owned by families opposed to abortion and he implied that forcing them to pay for it would be wrong.
I’m worried that we live in a Republic where Anthony Kennedy often is all that stands between our government and our liberties.
UPDATE: At Bench Memos, Carrie Severino provides an excellent recap of the Hobby Lobby oral argument.