If there is anyone left who believes the Democrats have a decent shot at winning control of the House this year, he or she should check out the ad reservations made by House Majority PAC, the leading super-PAC backing Democrats in House races. The group’s name reflects optimism, but its buys don’t. Three quarters of the districts for which the PAC has reserved air time are presently held by Democrats.
According to the Washington Post:
Among the Democrats House Majority PAC is trying to safeguard are three in Arizona, Reps. Ron Barber, Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema. A trio of Californians, Reps. Ami Bera, Raul Ruiz and Scott Peters are also on the list. In Illinois, where Democrats had a lot of success in 2012, the group is looking to shield Rep. Brad Schneider and Cheri Bustos. The organization has also reserved time in both New Hampshire districts, each held by a Democrat, as well as a trio of New York districts represented by Democrats.
The PAC has reserved time in only six districts held by Republicans:
The seats House Majority PAC is targeting are that of Rep. Mike Coffman (Colo.), Steve Southerland (Fla.), Michael Grimm (N.Y.), John Kline (Minn.), Rodney Davis (Ill.) and Iowa’s 3rd district, where Rep. Tom Latham is retiring.
John Kline is John Hinderaker’s congressman. He’s a six-term representative who won by 8 points in 2012. John can correct me if I’m wrong, but if Kline is this high on the list of Republican-held seats the Dems consider winnable, then it seems to me they are in bad shape.
It’s also worth considering some of the seats for which the Democratic PAC has not reserved air time:
Vulnerable Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), who has faced an early onslaught of conservative attack ads, is not included. Majority PAC has already gone up on the air to defend Rahall, but it could be taking a wait-and-see approach to his race.
The seats being vacated by retiring Reps Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and Mike McIntyre (D-.N.C.) are also absent. The two seats are favored to fall into Republican hands. The fall reservation further confirms the tilt of the two races.
Matheson narrowly defeated Power Line favorite Mia Love in 2012. She is running again this year.
As the Post says, her prospects look good. So do Republican prospects for maintaining, and quite possibly expanding, control House.