Where we are now

John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin are Republican strategists and partners in the national polling firm McLaughlin & Associates. Over at NRO they take a look at current polling data and ask whether a mid-term tsunami is on the way. They look at changes over the past month and, not surprisingly, find them trending against Democrats. Obama is a drag and he has become even draggier, you might say, in the past several weeks. Prior to the these changes over the past month, I am disappointed to learn, Democrats were holding their own.

Only in the most recent data does a promising trend appear. How easily it could revert in favor of the Democrats. Yet McLaughlin and McLaughlin hold out hope for better days:

Can it get worse for the Democrats — a strong double-digit House gain for Republicans and a Republican Senate tsunami? A further analysis of the undecided vote says yes.

One in six voters, 16 percent, are still undecided for Congress, but those voters disapprove of the job the president is doing 30 percent to 67. They disapprove of Obamacare 29–62. They want a Republican congressman to be a check on President Obama 42 percent to 17.

The Republicans could take six in ten of these undecided voters and have a national majority vote for Congress of about 52 percent.

The mid-term elections are five months away: “We wish the election were next week. November 4 is a long way away, and time allows Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But the political pull of that fixed date is about to hit the Democrats like a meteor destined for its target.” McLaughlin and McLaughlin anticipate actions Obama could take that could help Democrats:

Maybe President Obama will change the election’s course by placing a moratorium on Obamacare and starting over? Maybe he’ll approve the Keystone pipeline and approve more drilling offshore and on federal lands? Maybe he’ll compromise with Republicans to really secure the border and reduce illegal immigration by 90 percent? Maybe he’ll really put a freeze on Iran’s nuclear weapons? Or maybe the president will reinstate workfare for able-bodied adults to get welfare and food stamps?

Okay, I’m no seer, but I’m saying it ain’t gonna happen. Today the New York Times is unable to suppress its excitement over Obama’s scheduled announcement of the latest front in the administration’s war on coal. The prospect of Republicans snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is a far better bet than a course correction on the part of Team Obama.

Responses