Republicans are optimistic about the Senate these days, on account of recent polls that show their candidates pulling ahead, or pulling even, in a number of battleground states. Oddsmakers are now saying there is a strong probability the GOP will re-take the Senate in November.
However, there is a catch: as usual, the Democrats’ fundraising this cycle has vastly outpaced the Republicans’. And the Democrats are focusing their resources where it counts, on the Senate. Echelon Insights, a reputable outfit headed by Kristen Anderson and Patrick Ruffini, has been tracking television advertising buys. This is how the reserved air time shapes up between now and November. Click to enlarge:
Republicans are competitive except with regard to Senate races, where Democrats have reserved almost twice the air time as GOP candidates. Will the Dems’ advertising barrage tilt close races in their favor? Only time will tell. Some think that TV advertising is overrated, others say voters reach a saturation point and last-minute ads are ineffective. Let’s hope that is correct. In any event, if you live in a state with a competitive Senate race and if you watch sports between now and November–and who doesn’t, with the baseball postseason and the NFL in full swing?–brace yourself. You are about to be inundated with Democratic Party ads.