It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

Keep in mind that four years ago it took some days to figure out that Rick Santorum had narrowly won the Iowa caucus vote on the GOP side, contrary to what was reported on election night. (Also worth filing away for another time that Santorum’s appeal probably owed as much to his own Trump-like appeal to economic nationalism as it did to his social conservatism.)

This comes to mind with the fact that, as of this Tuesday morning writing, AP still hasn’t called the Democratic race in Iowa that I can find. [UPDATE: AP has called the race for Clinton at 1 pm eastern.] The Sanders campaign says that results of 90 precincts are either missing or contestable, and is talking about demanding a recount. And those six precincts where Hillary won a tie by coin toss? Statisticians are stroking their chins about that one; the odds are 1 in 32. Those six precincts probably did not affect the final delegate count for Clinton or Sanders, but still: maybe Hillary should head to Vegas instead of the White House (or go back to trading cattle futures, where she was equally “lucky”). But I’ll bet casinos won’t allow her to bring her own coins:

Hillary's coins

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