For the last few days, I’ve been reading that there hasn’t been a large amount of new registration in Iowa and that, therefore, turnout for the caucuses might not be massive. It’s too early to dispute this view, but reports are that at two sites anyway, turnout is exceeding expectations.
Tim Alberta of NRO says that in Waukee, a Des Moines suburb, turnout is “WAY higher than organizers expected” and that it’s “standing-room only.”
Meanwhile, our own Dave Begley reports that at Carter Lake near Council Bluffs (where the caucus apparently is being held), there are “250 people here, easy” whereas someone from the local GOP says that only 50 people showed up last time. This seems difficult to believe if the comparison is apples to apples, but clearly turnout at this site is exceeding expectations.
I think the conventional wisdom is that a big turnout of Dems helps Sanders and a big turnout of Republicans helps Trump. On the other hand, if the big turnout is the product of a great “ground game,” that might be good news for Clinton and Cruz.
It’s too early, though, to say anything definitive about overall turnout in the state and certainly too early to say with confidence who would benefit the most from a big turnout.
UPDATE: It looks like the turnout may well be massive. That’s what Fox News is reporting at both Democratic and Republican caucus venues.