The Virginia tease [UPDATED]

Donald Trump is having a pretty good night, certainly better than I expected. He leads in Florida — narrowly, but with 94 percent of the vote in. He leads in Ohio by more than 10 points with half of the vote in. He leads by 2.5 points in North Carolina with 60 percent of the vote in.

These states are viewed as necessary for a Trump win, but are not sufficient. He needs to breach Hillary Clinton’s “fire wall” to defeat her. Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina were not part of that wall.

Virginia is. Yet, Trump leads in the Commonwealth by about 10,000 votes with 90 percent of the vote in.

Don’t get your hopes up. In race after race in Virginia, the Democrat has closed the gap late to break Republican hearts. Votes from Northern Virginia make the difference late.

It has happened pretty consistently since at least 2006, when George Allen, with a much larger lead than Trump’s, was overtaken at the end. We also saw it in the most recent Senate and gubernatorial races.

Things could turn out differently this year, but we shouldn’t count on it.

SURE ENOUGH: Clinton now leads in Virginia by around 7,000 votes. Call me a pessimist (and you probably will if you’re a regular reader), but I think the various decision desks should put Virginia in the Clinton column and move on.

THEY HAVE: Virginia goes to Clinton.

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