Author Archives: Paul Mirengoff

Florida Senate

Fox has called it for incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. I resigned myself to losing this race a while ago. »

From the Romney camp

Here is what Team Romney is putting out: OH Exit Polling: It’s showing D+8 which is identical to the historic Dem turnout of 2008. We strongly believe that when votes are actually counted – going to be a much tighter race. FL: Lines in GOP precincts still 2 hours long – lots of GOP votes to be counted. A look at the I-4 corridor: Pasco County: Republicans – all voted: »

Exit polls

Fox says they show that Obama did better than Romney among those who just today decided how they would vote. That would be huge for Obama. Fox also says that exit polls show Obama carrying independents in New Hampshire by 8 points. UPDATE: I believe Fox has issued a correction for the New Hampshire independents. Obama is up by 2 points among independents in the exit poll. »


Lots of raw vote is in from Florida, about 40 percent. Obama leads by a few points. This vote doesn’t encompass the conservative panhandle area, whose polls are only now about the close. Romney should do quite well there. I don’t know which parts of the state of the tabulated vote comes mainly from, but it presumably encompasses lots of early voters, who arguably tended to vote for Obama. But »

The gender gap

Fox says that the exit polls show nearly identical gender gaps. That is, Obama’s positive spread among women is just about the same as Romney’s positive spread among men. However, about 54 percent of the electorate is female, according to Fox. Moreover, Obama does ever so slightly better among women than Romney does among men. So, advantage Obama. »

Calling an election that’s too close to call

Featured image I have been reluctant to predict the outcome of the presidential election because I believe the race is too close to call with any confidence. That, in any event, is what the national polls say. However, last night, during his Ricochet podcast, John asked me for a prediction. As a guest, I could hardly refuse. I picked Romney to win narrowly, both in the popular and the electoral vote. Why? »

To Maryland voters: Thoughts about Question 7 (gambling expansion)

Featured image Maryland’s ballot questions this year include such big ticket items as same-sex marriage, a dream act, and congressional redistricting. But by far the dominant question, measured by the amount of campaigning, is gambling. Specifically, Marylanders have been bombarded with electioneering on the issue of whether a new casino should be added to the few that already exist, and whether certain table games should be permitted at all Maryland casinos. It »

To Maryland voters: Please vote “no” on Question 5 (congressional redistricting)

Featured image Maryland is such a Blue State these days that the results of races for office are nearly always a foregone conclusion. 2012 is no exception. However, this year Marylanders do get to vote on an array of controversial ballot questions as to which the outcome is in doubt. These issues included same-sex marriage (Question 6), a Dream Act (Question 4), gambling expansion (Question 7), and congressional redistricting (Question 5). The »

Catching up with the last minute state polls

Featured image Ohio Rasmussen: Obama 49, Romney 49 U. of Cin: Obama 50, Romney 48.5 (with leaners included) Florida Jax Times-Union/Insider Advantage: Obama 47, Romney 52 Iowa ARG: Obama 48, Romney 49 Virginia Rasmussen: Obama 48, Romney 50 »

The congressional race in my backyard

Featured image I should have written much earlier about an interesting congressional race in my district, Maryland’s Eighth. It pits incumbent Democrat Chris Van Hollen against Republican challenger Ken Timmerman. What makes the race stand out is not its competitiveness; Van Hollen is very likely to win. Rather, the race stands out because of the sharp contrast between the two candidates on foreign policy, an issue seldom seen in the 2012 election. »

Mixed Senate polling news

Featured image Massachusetts: A UMass/Boston Herald poll has Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren by 1 point, 49-48, among likely voters. However, other recent pollsfind Warren ahead by about 5 points. UMass/Boston Herald has been an outlier in this race before. In September, it found Brown ahead by 4 points at a time when Warren was ahead in nearly every other poll. This doesn’t that the UMass/Boston Herald results should be discounted. However, »

22,000 deserving “favorites” the government decided not to pick

Featured image As discussed in the post below, the auto industry bailout is a classic case of crony capitalism, and one which has not accomplished its stated goal of putting General Motors on a sound footing. Nonetheless, the Obama campaign has made the bailout the centerpiece of its efforts to hold the electoral votes of the crucial states of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The web ad below, by American Future Fund, counters »

The auto industry bailout — a classic case of crony capitalism

Featured image Peter Schweizer, in the Washington Times, helps expose the auto industry bailout for what it was — “a classic tale of cronyism, in which the well-connected sped away with big bucks.” In this instance, the “well-connected” can be found mainly in the world of Big Finance: In his recent book “Bailout,” the former special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, Neil Barofsky, points out that when it came »

After months of non-stop personal attacks against him, Romney emerges in as favorable a light as Obama

Featured image Mary Katharine Ham finds that in the waning days of this election, Mitt Romney has closed the “likeability gap,” formerly thought to be President Obama’s greatest asset, in three national polls. The polls in question are Washington Post/ABC News (Obama viewed favorably by 54 percent, Romney by 53 percent); Politico/GW (Obama 51 percent; Romney 50 percent); and Fox News (Obama 52; Romney 51). It’s not difficult to believe that Romney »

The Catholic vote in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan

Featured image Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan have turned out to be among the very most important states in this year’s presidential election. These states have several things in common, one of which is a large Catholic population. Catholics represent approximately 18 percent of the population in Ohio, 29.5 percent in Wisconsin, 28.5 in Pennsylvania, and 22 percent in Michigan. A Columbus Dispatch poll gives Romney a 55 to 44 lead »

Good news from Montana

Featured image Montana is a Red State, and there will be no good excuse if Republican Denny Rehberg (a Power Line Pick Six candidate) does not defeat liberal Democrat Jon Tester this year. But the absence of a good excuse for losing doesn’t ensure victory in Red State Senate races — a lesson that likely will be reinforced in one or more Senate race on Tuesday. Fortunately, Rehberg has run a pretty »

Who’s ahead in Iowa?

Featured image Michael Barone has predicted that Mitt Romney will carry Iowa. The polls, however, tend to favor President Obama. NBC/WSJ/Marist shows President Obama up by 6 percentage points — 50 to 44 percent; Gravis Marketing shows Obama up 4 points — 49 to 45 percent; WeAskAmerica shows Obama up 1.5 points — 48.8 to 47.3 percent; while Rasmussen shows Mitt Romney up 1 point — 49 to 48 percent. At the »