Author Archives: Paul Mirengoff

Republicans closing in on control of Senate [UPDATED: Ernst puts GOP over the top]

Featured image As I write this (shortly after 10:00 p.m. in the East), the GOP has picked up five Senate seats tonight. The pick-ups are in West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Colorado, and Montana. This puts the Republicans within one pick-up of taking control of the Senate. The GOP’s burden would increase, of course, if the Democrats were to gain a seat. And that could happen in Kansas, although incumbent Republican Pat »

Crist losing in Florida [UPDATED: Scott wins]

Featured image There’s no candidate I would rather see lose, from a personal standpoint, than Charlie Crist. In a profession full of slippery characters, I wouldn’t be surprised if Crist is the most slippery. Indeed, it’s difficult to find an important subject as to which he has not flipped. Crist is locked in a tight contest for Florida governor against incumbent Rick Scott. The two have been neck-and-neck all night. But now, »

What’s up in Virginia? [UPDATED -- Warner ahead]

Featured image Early in the campaign season, I had some hope that Republican Ed Gillespie would unseat incumbent Mark Warner. As the season went on, however, I saw no evidence that Gillespie had a serious shot. But now, with almost half the vote counted, Gillespie leads Warner 51.8 to 45.6. In absolute terms, he leads by almost 60,000 votes. Virginia returns can fluctuate pretty dramatically during the course of an evening. As »

Tracking the Power Line Picks [UPDATE: Cotton and Mooney win]

Featured image I’m going to use this post throughout the evening to follow the six races involving Power Line Picks. There isn’t much to report yet, of course. For what it’s worth, Alex Mooney has jumped out to an early 7.5 point lead in West Virginia’s Second Congressional District. However, this translate into a margin of only around 1,300 votes. The Second District is extremely diverse. Without knowing where the early returns »

McConnell reelected

Featured image Fox News has called the Kentucky Senate race. Mitch McConnell is the winner. Maybe now Alison Grimes will tell us how she voted in the last presidential race. By the end of evening, McConnell may be the new Senate majority leader. That would be one fine night for the old war horse. McConnell’s counterpart, Harry Reid, will be up for reelection in two years. He will have the benefit of »

Today’s most important race

Featured image What is the most important race in this year’s election cycle? It’s whatever race, if any, determines which party will control the Senate. But if control of the Senate does not end up turning on one race, then the race for Governor of Wisconsin is probably the most important of the day. For this race could have major implications for the 2016 presidential contest. Scott Walker is, I think, the »

Jeanne Shaheen helped lead charge to have IRS attack 501(c)(4) groups

Featured image According to the Daily Caller, “Jeanne Shaheen was principally involved in a plot with Lois Lerner and President Barack Obama’s political appointee at the IRS to lead a program of harassment against conservative nonprofit groups during the 2012 election.” The “plot” consists of developing IRS regulations that would make life difficult for 501(c)(4) groups. We have written in some detail about these regulations which, properly viewed, boil down to an »

Obama’s syrian proxies routed

Featured image The Free Syrian Army and Harakat Hazm were formed with the intention of fighting the Assad regime. President Obama hoped to convert them into forces that could help degrade ISIS. But over the weekend, both groups found themselves in combat against neither Assad nor ISIS. Instead, they fought Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. It did not go well. Both groups were routed. Many fighters surrendered. Many more scattered. »

Meanwhile, what about the House? [UPDATED]

Featured image The day before the election, attention is focused, as it should be, on the battle for control of the Senate. But we shouldn’t neglect the House. No one thinks the Democrats will win back the House this year; it’s understood that, to the contrary, the GOP is likely to build on its current margin. But the more seats the GOP picks up, the greater the likelihood it will retain control »

As they approach the finish. . .

Featured image If you believe Nate Silver, and his track record (2010 and 2012) provides plenty of reason to do so, there is only one “toss-up” Senate race at this point. That’s the Kansas race between incumbent Republican Pat Roberts and alleged independent Greg Orman. In all other Senate races, Silver finds that one candidate has a 66 percent or better chance of winning. And in two races once thought to be »

Off to Italy

Featured image I’ll be in Southern Italy for the next ten days. I don’t expect to blog while there. I’ll be back in time for the election. In the meantime, John, Scott, and Steve will keep everyone fired up. I look forward to reading their coverage. GOP election prospects look good to me. The old cliche would have it that 12 days is a lifetime in politics. That’s not true, but it’s »

Anne Kuster’s ghoulish pro-choice rally [UPDATED]

Featured image Annie Kuster, a Dartmouth grad, represents New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District. She’s a “pro-choice” Democrat. Kuster is locked in a tight race with rising star Republican Marilinda Garcia. Larry Sabato rates the race “leans Democratic.” This morning, Kuster held a rally to announce that she has received the endorsement of NARAL Pro-Choice New Hampshire, the state’s leading pro-abortion outfit. The rally was held in a room decorated with a skeleton »

“Bruce Bailey” for “governor of Iowa”

Featured image With control of the Senate at stake, Barack Obama can’t quite stand the thought of remaining on the sidelines. This, perhaps, is why he keeps injecting himself into the race by telling people that his policies are on the ballot and that endangered Democratic incumbents are “folks who vote with me.” Obama’s desire to participate may also explain why Michelle Obama went to Iowa not long ago to campaign for »

Poll shows “war on women” theme isn’t working, among other good news

Featured image A new AP/Gfk poll provides lots of good news for Republicans. Perhaps most significantly, it shows that female likely voters no longer favor the Democrats in this election. AP/Gfk surveyed 1,608 adults. The sample included 968 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.8 for all respondents and 3.6 for likely voters. Last month, the survey found that female likely voters favored having a Congress controlled by Democrats by »

Holder DOJ expert witness: blacks are dumber and less civic-minded than whites

Featured image An expert witness hired by Eric Holder’s Department of Justice testified that North Carolina election law requirements have an adverse impact on black voters because they are less “sophisticated” than white voters and therefore have more difficulty figuring out how to register to vote. Christian Adams has the details. The requirements that the DOJ’s witness found blacks less able than whites to comply with are (1) registering to vote before »

A Fall Non-classic

Featured image The 2014 World Series begins in a few hours. Both teams competing in it — the San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals — failed to win 90 games. This therefore will be the first World Series in baseball history (other than in the shortened seasons of 1918 and 1919, and in 1981, the year of the strike) to lack at least one 90 game (or more) winner. Both »

New poll shows Cotton 8 points ahead

Featured image A new poll, this one by Talk Business and Politics/Hendrix College, puts Tom Cotton’s lead over Mark Pryor at 48-41. The survey included more than 2,000 likely voters and was taken after the last week’s Cotton-Pryor debate (as I understand it, there will be no more debates between the two). The margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percent. According to Dr. Jay Barth of Hendrix College, the survey »