Author Archives: Steven Hayward

Sabato Says Eight!

Featured image Yesterday I noted that Henry Olsen predicts a seven seat GOP pickup in the Senate, and now I see that Larry Sabato is calling eight!  (And a nine seat GOP pickup in the House.) I find Sabato to be a bit of a blowhard, but he is typically cautious about his picks, and has a decent track record.  Still makes me inclined to say that the actual number will be »

Early Tidings From the Exit Polls

Featured image Preliminary exit poll data is starting to leak out, and while they won’t yet report on how specific races are breaking, the issue priorities they report can give us some pretty good clues.  Here’s the Washington Post‘s election live blog this hour: The economy is once again voters most important issue in 2014 according to preliminary national exit polling, but not by as wide a margin as in recent years. »

Time for Payback

Featured image It is too early to count on a Republican Senate 15 hours from now, but haven’t you noticed all the articles in the last couple of weeks from liberals saying, “Oh, won’t it be terrible for Republicans if they have a Senate majority!  Just think of all the problems they’re going to have!”  These articles do offer their comic amusement. There is one from this genre worth noting: Jeffrey Rosen’s »

“Our Friends,” the Saudis

Featured image While we gear up for a long day and evening tracking election returns, we should update our story from three weeks ago entitled “What Are the Saudis Up To?” There I wondered about the Saudi decision to maintain current production levels in the face of falling oil prices: But could there be a more sinister reason? If oil prices keep falling, it will not only hurt some of the Saudis’ »

Udall Is A Loser, But Has He Already Lost?

Featured image The numerologists who follow early voting are wondering whether Cory Gardner has already won the Colorado Senate election before any election day votes have been cast, because the large early voting totals appear to favor Republicans so heavily that it is unlikely Udall can overcome it tomorrow.  Maybe, in which case we’ll continue to rethink how early voting affects campaigns, etc. Meanwhile, if you needed any additional evidence of what »

Somebody’s Flexin’ Jerry Brown

Featured image Okay, so several commenters on last night’s post about the Maxine Waters posters popping up around LA cleared me up a bit on the proper understanding of “flexing,” and while my usage here may not be exactly right, until it’s fixed authoritatively in the OED I’m going to go with a broad reading. And speaking of Jerry Brown, the same merry prankster’s are giving The Moonbeam the same treatment, as »

Dems on Suicide Watch?

Featured image Things are so bad for Democrats that they aren’t even going to try to have an election night party in Washington DC, according to the Washington Examiner.  The temptation to drink up all the Kool Aid would probably be too strong. While most of the attention is on the Senate races, a number of governors races don’t look so hot.  Jim Geraghty at National Review’s Campaign Spot reports this afternoon »

Low-Information Californians

Featured image The “low-information voter” is the au courant term these days, though the phenomenon has been well understood by public choice economists under the theory of “rational ignorance.”  But Californians clearly abuse the privilege, and appear to be “irrationally ignorant voters.”  To wit: 40% of Voters Unaware That Jerry Brown Is Seeking Another Term Here’s an eye-opener: With the election Tuesday, a whopping 4 out of 10 voters don’t even know »

How Many Elections Will Democrats Steal Tomorrow, Part 4 [With Comment By John]

Featured image Britain’s Daily Mail has a nice piece out today summarizing the guerrilla journalism of James O’Keefe on the question of vote fraud.  (Why is it, by the way, that when CBS or NBC does hidden camera investigation, it is considered great journalism, but when O’Keefe does it, it is called “intimidation”?  For that matter, why do we have to look to the British press for serious treatment of potential voter »

Liberals Are Losing: Quick, Change the Rules!

Featured image As John has covered closely with regard to the MoveOn and Mayday video ad competition, when liberals lose their first impulse is to change the rules, or blame the institutions of democracy. With a liberal wipeout in prospect tomorrow, naturally liberals are gearing up to argue that we should cancel mid-term elections. Who says this? A Duke professor, naturally. Where? The New York Times, naturally. There was a time when »

The Science Is Settled: Drink Early and Often

Featured image I know that the health benefits of wine drinking—especially red wine—is not a new story here or elsewhere, but there’s a new research finding that is worth a special note: Drinking Red Wine Is the Same as Getting An Hour of Exercise. Dear red wine drinkers: I have wonderful news. A new study says that drinking a glass of wine can equate to an hour of exercise. I repeat: Drinking a »

Henry’s Call

Featured image Forget Nate Silver, the golden boy of election forecasting (though his “73 percent odds” that the GOP will take the Senate looks pretty solid). Go instead with Henry Olsen’s forecast up this morning at National Review Online. His election calls over the last few cycles rival Silver’s for accuracy. If Henry says the GOP will pick up a net seven Senate seats, you can take it to the bank. The »

The Perfect Democratic Candidate!

Featured image I think it is Glenn Reynolds who may have first come up with the slogan that the Democratic Party is nowadays a criminal conspiracy masquerading as a political party, which is fitting for their candidate for Louisiana’s 6th House district: Edwin Edwards! He’s only a convicted felon, and after serving nine years in federal prison he’s back in he game, a spry age 87 adorned by his 35-year-old (third) wife, »

Somebody’s Flexin’ Maxine!

Featured image So I learn from my students that the new descriptive term for showing someone up is “flexing”—I suppose a reference perhaps to what body builders do in a gym?  Not sure, and I’ll make a point of asking for a more complete explanation and proper usage guide in class next week. But even before then, it appears someone is flexin’ ol’ Maxine Waters, the openly socialist Democratic Congresswoman from south »

A 97 Percent Footnote

Featured image Pointing out the fraudulence and superficiality of the climatistas “97 percent!” campfire slogan is a tedious business, but someone has to do it. (My most complete analysis of it is here.) The distinguished climate economist Richard Tol has been all over the original Cook paper, and has a fresh takedown up on his website right now. If you’re not familiar with Tol, he is one of the pre-eminent economists in »

The Senate Home Stretch: Upsets in the Making?

Featured image The chalk line right now, going on the RealClearPolitics polling averages (which have been pretty good in past cycles), suggest a post-election Senate with 52 Republicans—a seven seat pickup. I still think the GOP is going to sneak up on a Senate race elsewhere—perhaps New Mexico, where another undistinguished Udall is on the ballot and where the Republican challenger, Allen Weh, is stubbornly hanging on. Most polls show Udall winning »

Obama’s “Settled Science”

Featured image Remember how Obama promised in his first inaugural address to “restore science to its rightful place”? Beyond this gratuitous dig at the outgoing Bush administration, it is curious to see that Obama’s idea of scientific authority is the egregious John Holdren, whom Obama chose as his science adviser. For Halloween our pal Rob Bradley of the Institute for Energy Research compiled a list of Holdren’s greatest hits over at the »