2012 Election

American Crossroads poll puts Cotton five points ahead of Pryor

Featured image Although certain polls from April and early May suggested that Sen. Mark Pryor had opened up a large lead over Rep. Tom Cotton, more recent polling suggests that the race is neck-and-neck. I made that case here. Now, American Crossroads has released a survey showing Cotton with a 46-41 lead. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.39. American Crossroads is, of course, strongly pro-Cotton. In fact, it »

I beg your pardon

Featured image The ceremony in the Rose Garden celebrating the return of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl must be the most misbegotten photo op of all time. In addition to President Obama, both Bergdgahl mère and père spoke. It seemed to me bizarre beyond belief, a photo op gone wrong. Was Mr. Bergdahl vetted? Did anyone in the White House notice that Mr. Bergdahl seems to have gone over to the other side? As »

The Cotton-Pryor race: neck-and-neck after all

Featured image I was surprised in early April when two polls — one by New York Times/Kaiser, the other by Opinion Research Associates — showed Sen. Mark Pryor leading Rep. Tom Cotton by 10 points. Frankly, I didn’t believe that these polls accurately reflected the state of the race. But then, in early May, an NBC/Marist poll gave Pryor an 11 point lead, 51-40. Although Tom’s campaign pointed to internal polling that »

Mark Pryor and company rubber stamp radical nominee David Barron

Featured image The Senate has confirmed the nomination of left-winger David Barron to the First Circuit Court of Appeals. The vote was 53-45. Only two Democrats voted against confirming Barron. They were Joe Manchin, a genuine moderate, and Mary Landrieu, who is up for re-election in a conservative state. Other pseudo-moderate Democrats such as Mark Pryor, Mark Begich, and Kay Hagan were perfectly content to rubber-stamp a nominee who, among things, has »

About that New York Times Arkansas Senate poll

Featured image A new poll by the New York Times has Sen. Mark Pryor 10 points ahead of Rep. Tom Cotton, 46-36. Even with that result, the RCP average (which includes three additional polls taken since February) has Pryor ahead by only 2.2 points. Thus, the Times poll is, by definition, an outlier. But does it nonetheless reflect the current state of the race? I don’t think so. As Bill Kristol points »

The Cotton Bowl, or Pryor Analytics Epic Fail

Featured image You can tell Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor, who owes his office to the fact that his daddy was Senator, is desperate when he accuses Tom Cotton of a sense of “entitlement” to a Senate seat.  Who does Pryor think he is—Chelsea Clinton?  If you want to see why Tom Cotton is going to wipe the floor with Senator Posterior Pryor in November, check out this awesome rebuttal—but in order to »

Mark Pryor relies on a prior Pryor

Featured image This Politico story about Sen. Mark Pryor’s reelection pitch goes on for the two pages but never gets beyond the fact that Pryor’s father was a very popular politician. After serving for almost 12 years in the Senate, Mark Pryor should be embarrassed that his main claim to fame is that he’s David Pryor’s son. But when it comes to clinging to office, Pryor is probably beyond feeling embarrassed. And »

Democrats take another hit in Arkansas

Featured image While I was away seeking (and finding) global warmth in the Dominican Republic, voters in Northeast Arkansas sent an ominous message to Democrats by overwhelmingly electing a Republican in a special State Senate election. The Republican, John Cooper, captured 57 percent of the vote to win a seat (District 21) that has never been held by a member of his party. The race centered on the issue of whether to »

Rothenberg gives Cotton the edge in Arkansas

Featured image Stu Rothenberg has moved the Arkansas Senate race between Sen. Mark Pryor and Rep. Tom Cotton from “toss-up” to “tilts Republican.” His reasoning is as follows: Currently, we seem to be headed toward a typical midterm election, with unhappy voters regarding Election Day as an opportunity to make a statement about the president. With Obama’s job rating in the upper 30s and low 40s in national polls — and lower »

Love is in the air

Featured image Glenn Reynolds has rescued his interview last year with Utah’s prospective Fourth District Republican congressional candidate Mia Love from the archives. Love narrowly lost her race last year to incumbent Fourth District Rep. Jim Matheson. With the pending retirement of Mathewson from Congress, Love is in the air. Roll Call notes that she is the clear front-runner for Matheson’s seat. Her campaign Web site is here. Glenn asks Love about »

Matheson retirement clears the way for Mia Love [Updated]

Featured image Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) has announced that he will not run for reelection. This clear the way for Power Line favorite Mia Love to win the seat. She came within a few hundred votes of winning it in 2012. Larry Sabato has already changed his analysis of the seat from “leans Democrat” to “likely Republican.” In my view, however, Love would have been the slight favorite to defeat Matheson. Perhaps »

Is Tom Cotton too good to be true?

Featured image National Journal takes an interesting approach to its examination of Tom Cotton in his race to unseat incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor in Arkansas. Marin Cogan asks “Is Tom Cotton too good to be true?” It’s a loaded question, like “Have you stopped beating your wife?” Cogan frames her profile of Tom this way: On a recent late-fall Saturday, Barbara Deuschle, a local restaurant owner, was recounting her first impression »

CRB: Look back in anger

Featured image The new (Fall) issue of the Claremont Review of Books will be turned over to the US Postal Service this week. The CRB is the flagship publication of the Claremont Institute and my favorite magazine. I want to persuade you to subscribe to it, which you can do here for the ridiculously low, heavily subsidized price of $19.95 a year and get immediate online access thrown in to boot. As »

Mark Pryor under attack for rubber-stamping Obama’s judicial nominees

Featured image Sen. Mark Pryor’s vote in favor of Obamacare, without which that legislation would not have passed the Senate, should be enough to cause his defeat in the 2014 Arkansas race Senate. And, at the end of the day, I suspect it will be. However, there is also the matter of President Obama’s judicial nominees. Pryor has not voted against the confirmation of a single one. Not even far left-winger Goodwin »

Recent polls demonstrate Pryor’s peril and Cotton’s opportunity

Featured image I’ve just returned from a Tom Cotton fundraising event. The outlook is pretty good for Tom’s bid to unseat Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor, a bid that probably must succeed if Republicans are going to regain control of the Senate in the 2014 election. Tom cited three recent polls of his race, each of which contains essentially the same good news. A poll by Arkansas Talk Business-Hendrix College shows basically a »

Tom Cotton’s vote

Featured image Our friend Tom Cotton was one of the 87 Republicans who voted for “compromise” legislation that ended the partial government shutdown. Some conservatives are unhappy about his vote. One of our readers, a very smart activist conservative, has complained in no uncertain terms. I think that Tom did the right thing when he voted “yes.” The partial shutdown was injuring Republican prospects with no realistic hope of forcing the administration »

Cruz 2016 revisited

Featured image A new poll by PPP finds that Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters to be their candidate for President in 2016. 20 percent of the Republican primary voters surveyed favor Cruz. Rand Paul is next with 17 percent. He is followed by Chris Christie (14 percent), Jeb Bush (11 percent), Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan (10 percent), Bobby Jindal (4 percent), and Rick Santorum and »