2014 Election

The Priebus proviso

Featured image I don’t recall hearing anything both witty and true said on one of the Sunday morning gabfests in a long time, but I thought RNC chairman Reince Priebus got it done this morning in his appearance with DNC chairman Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz on FOX News Sunday. Asked by Chris Wallace whether Dems would hold their majority in the Senate, Schultz responded: “We’re going to hold the Senate because over the »

Will Black Voters Turn Out This Year? Why Should They?

Featured image There is a lot of buzz today about this article in the New York Times: “Black Vote Seen as Last Hope for Democrats to Hold Senate.” The confidential memo from a former pollster for President Obama contained a blunt warning for Democrats. Written this month with an eye toward Election Day, it predicted “crushing Democratic losses across the country” if the party did not do more to get black voters »

Random Good News on a Friday Night

Featured image Having spent the evening at a lovely birthday dinner (not mine), I don’t have much to say about tonight’s news. So here are a couple of favorable data points from this morning. First, here in Minnesota, the KSTP/Survey USA poll has Power Line Pick Stewart Mills leading incumbent Rick Nolan by eight points, 47%-39%. That margin is surprising, but Stewart’s lead isn’t. He is a good candidate and Nolan is »

Ernst-Braley hold final debate, as Ernst leads the race narrowly

Featured image Two more polls released in the last few days have Joni Ernst (a Power Line pick) leading Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race. A USA Today/Suffolk poll shows Ernst ahead by 47-43. A Quinnipiac poll, with a larger sample, has it Ernst 47-Braley 45. This means that the four most recent publicly released polls all have Ernst ahead. The combined number of individuals polled in these surveys is nearly »

Hispanic Voters Are Reagan Voters!

Featured image That’s the message of this hard-hitting new anti-Mark Udall ad in Colorado, which is lighting up the internet this morning. The ad, produced by Conservative War Chest, is playing in both Spanish and English. It is aggressive, to put it mildly; it will be fun to hear the Democrats squawk about it over the days to come. The ad represents the most meaningful effort I have seen to take seriously »

The limits of reticence

Featured image The Age of Obama will not be known as an age of reticence. The president is, after all, a man of many words, including some that used to resonate widely. But there is one area in which Obama has ushered in a new reticence. Following Obama’s lead, Democratic politicians increasingly flatly refuse to tell to voters what their positions are on key matters. Obama started the trend by voting “present” »

Dems Say: Let’s Run on Global Warming and Contraception. Voters Say: Huh?

Featured image The Democrats’ two big issues this cycle, to the extent they have been willing to talk about issues, are global warming and contraception. Neither of which the federal government has much, if anything, to do with, which may account for the fact that voters just don’t care. This Gallup chart makes the point visually. It graphs the importance of issues to voters against the Republicans’ advantage on those issues. Note »

The Democrats’ War On the Koch Brothers Is a Flop

Featured image The Democrats, hard up for issues to run on this year, decided to try to run against Charles and David Koch. This strategy was counterintuitive, since most people had no idea who the Kochs are, and voters are notoriously indifferent to campaign finance issues. But the Democrats pressed ahead, holding press conferences, denouncing the Kochs on the Senate floor, producing videos, and spending untold millions on campaign ads tying Republican »

Arkansas Debate: Cotton excels; Pryor confirms he’s out-of-touch

Featured image Tom Cotton made a strong showing in last night’s Arkansas Senate debate. His opponent, Mark Pryor, fought hard, but may ultimately have put the final nail in his coffin. Asked by one of the questioners to define the middle class, Pryor at first ducked the question. When pressed, he opined that it consisted of those making up to $200,000 a year. Talk about out of touch. Pryor’s definition might pass »

Pryor analytics, O’Keefe edition

Featured image James O’Keefe takes his Project Veritas Action team inside the campaign of incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas. In his new video, O’Keefe’s team shows Pryor supporters claiming that he secretly supports gay marriage although he holds himself out as a supporter of traditional marriage. O’Keefe prefaces the video with this email message: Enter Senator Mark Pryor. Sen. Pryor is a Democrat from Arkansas who has been in office »

Tillis finally pulls even in North Carolina

Featured image Late last year, when I began thinking seriously about the battle for the Senate, I assumed that North Carolina was ripe for a Republican victory. Romney had won the state, albeit very narrowly. Moreover first-term Democrat Kay Hagan lacked a strong family name and a long history of electoral success (unlike Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana). With the “fundamentals” (to the extent that I retain any »

A Final Plea for the Power Line Picks

Featured image If you have donated to political campaigns in the past, you, like me, are probably getting 100 to 200 emails a day, asking for money. One difference may be that I get them from both parties. I once contributed $3 to Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in the name of “Illegal Contributor,” residence, Stillwater Prison, just to show how easy the Obama campaign made it to donate illegally. Now I get »

Greg Abbott Strikes Back [Updated With Latest Davis Fiasco]

Featured image We wrote here about Wendy Davis’s disgusting anti-Greg Abbott wheel chair ad. The Davis commercial has been almost universally condemned, and this morning, the Abbott campaign struck back with this ad, titled “Lost Cause.” Which, at this point, the Davis campaign appears to be. It should be noted that the dumbest feature of Davis’s ad was its assumption that since Abbott is disabled, he must always, as a lawyer or »

Alex Mooney’s opponent makes desperate holocaust reference

Featured image My friend Alex Mooney is running for Congress in West Virginia’s second congressional district. He is one of our Power Line Picks. I wrote about Alex here and here, among other places. Alex’s opponent is Nick Casey, a lawyer/lobbyist. Alex has consistently led Casey in the polls. However, the race has tightened. In fact, Real Clear Politics has moved it from “leans GOP” to “toss up.” Casey is a liberal »

Wendy Davis Sinks Lower

Featured image You might think that a politician known to the world as Abortion Barbie doesn’t have a lot of room to fall. But you would be wrong. Wendy Davis has released a new ad attacking Republican Greg Abbott, who has been a paraplegic since a 1984 accident. The ad consists largely of a shot of a wheel chair, apparently intended to stir prejudice against Abbott. To the extent that the ad »

Are the Democrats Giving Up On Colorado?

Featured image Colorado’s Senate race is trending Republican, as the most recent poll, by Fox News, shows Cory Gardner leading Mark Udall by six points. Udall has run a lackluster campaign dominated by a tired, over-the-top “war on women” theme, and this morning the Denver Post, not known as a bastion of Republicanism, endorsed Gardner. Still, the race is competitive on paper. So why has Harry Reid’s Senate Majority PAC just cancelled »

Obamacare premiums rise steeply in Louisiana and Iowa

Featured image State regulators approved significant premium hikes on the Louisiana and Iowa Obamacare exchanges this week. Sarah Hurtubise of the Daily Caller reports that premiums will rise by double-digits in both states. This is bad news, I assume, for Mary Landrieu and Bruce Braley, the struggling Democratic Senate candidates in the two states. In Louisiana, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana, the exchange’s largest insurer, is hiking prices between 18.3 percent »