2014 Election

Breaking: McSally Wins!

Featured image Scott has followed Martha McSally’s race for an Arizona House seat here and here.  She’s just been officially declared the winner in the nation’s last remaining undecided House contest, by a margin of 167 votes.  From the AP: PHOENIX (AP) — Republicans will have their largest U.S. House majority in 83 years when the new Congress convenes next month after a recount in Arizona gave the final outstanding race to the »

Delusion In Louisiana

Featured image Mary Landrieu’s defeat was one of a number of blows that the Democrats suffered in Louisiana this year. They are now just about extinct in the state: Landrieu was the last statewide elected Democrat holding office in Louisiana. Republicans now control both U.S. Senate seats, five of six congressional districts, the Governor’s Office, the state Senate, the state House of Representatives, and all other statewide elected offices. Democrats are in »

McSally’s sally: An update

Featured image When they finished counting the votes in Arizona’s Second Congressional District — I believe it’s the redistricted version of the district formerly represented by Gabrielle Giffords — Republican challenger Martha McSally led incumbent Democrat Ron Barber by 161 votes. The final count is subject to a mandatory recount that is underway. The recount is to conclude by December 16. Republicans held two seats in Louisiana’s runoff election yesterday. (In one »

Landrieu lauds herself

Featured image Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu lost by 12 points to Rep. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s runoff election yesterday. The Landrieu family business is Democratic politics, Louisiana style. Cassidy is a practicing physician. As she faced imminent defeat, Landrieu charged Cassidy with defrauding whose in the profession Landrieu sought to turn into a scandal as she faced imminent defeat. She charged Cassidy with defrauding LSU in connection with his part-time work »

Landrieu loses

Featured image Mary Landrieu hasn’t just lost her runoff race against Bill Cassidy, she has been “crushed” (as Politico puts it). With about 40 percent of precincts reporting, Cassidy leads by 17 points. That’s Mark Pryor territory and approaches the domain of Blanche Lincoln, who lost by 21 points in 2010. Come January, the Senate will consist of 54 Republicans. That’s 2004 territory. The Democrats now hold zero Senate seats in the »

Mary’s prayer: The odds

Featured image At FiveThirtyEight Harry Enten provides the odds that Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy will defeat incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu in the runoff election for her Senate seat today: 99.8 percent, based on “the FiveThirtyEight model.” I know this is science, but where does the 0.2 percent come from, and how can we verify it? Perhaps we will learn another day. Today we can savor FiveThirtyEight’s exploration of the possibility that »

Landrieu finally finds a unified theory of [President] Obama

Featured image Throughout her campaign for reelection Mary Landrieu has faced a major dilemma — what to say about President Obama. Embrace his policies and she loses moderates who understand how immoderate Obama is; distance herself and she alienates the black voters on whom she heavily relies. As Scott has written, Landrieu addressed the dilemma by speaking with two voices. She says one thing when speaking to the public at large and »

Humane society tries to rescue stranded Mary Landrieu

Featured image Noting that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, among many others, has abandoned Mary Landrieu, Sean Sullivan and Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post describe Landrieu’s lonely last days as a Senator this way: So with the odds stacked heavily against her, Ladndrieu soldiers on virtually alone — this year’s political equivalent of those holdout Japanese infantrymen who were discovered waging war on remote Pacific islands decades after World War II »

In Louisiana, It’s Bill Cassidy Against Barack Obama

Featured image As Scott has noted, Mary Landrieu is desperately trying to hang on to her Senate seat by distancing herself from President Obama, while at the same time catering more quietly to his few remaining admirers. But the reality is that as a Democrat, she can’t hide from Obama’s toxic legacy. We have praised, a couple of times, the terrific work being done by Conservative War Chest. They are currently running »

The two faces of Mary

Featured image Louisiana’s Obama-loving black citizens represent Mary Landrieu’s best hope for reelection to the Senate seat Landrieu holds. They are Mary’s prayer. But she can’t win only with their votes. She also needs the votes of a substantial percentage of Obama-disapproving white voters. Mary’s prayer must include a message intended for their ears. The two faces of Mary’s prayer are in tension. Indeed, they are unreconcilable. Politico’s James Hohmann catches the »

Is Mary Landrieu in Blanche Lincoln territory?

Featured image This weekend I searched for recent polling of the Louisiana Senate runoff race, which will be held this coming Saturday. I hadn’t seen anything since a November 20 Rasmussen poll that had Rep. Cassidy leading Sen. Landrieu by 15 points. Alas, I found nothing more recent. Perhaps the pollsters have concluded that this is no longer a competitive race. Confirmation that the race may well effectively be over came this »

Mary, Mary, what you’ve come to

Featured image It’s a gloomy, rainy Monday in Washington, D.C. But the rain hasn’t deterred protesters from descending on Mary Landrieu’s stately Capitol Hill townhouse to protest the Louisiana Senator’s support of the Keystone XL oil pipeline (photo below). The protesters reportedly are standing in Landrieu’s yard. They have also deposited an ugly mock black plastic pipeline on her property. The police are on hand, but have done nothing to keep the »

How’d Hillary do?

Featured image Don Surber has an entertaining if wildly overoptimistic take on the midterm elections. Of most interest to me, however, is his contribution to answering the question I left hanging in my 13 notes on the morning after: how many competitive races in which Bill and Hillary Clinton stumped did their candidates win? Surber writes: “Hillary Clinton was about as effective as Pat Nixon on the campaign trail. Her candidates lost »

Say goodnight, Mary

Featured image Here is a poll to brighten your day. Bill Cassidy leads Mary Landrieu by 16 points, according to a survey by Magellan Strategies. The poll was taken for the Cassidy campaign, but the results don’t seem far-fetched. If you add Cassidy’s share of the vote on November 4 (41 percent) to the 14 percent share received by the other Republican in the race (Rob Maness), you get a landslide of »

A Pryor/Cotton footnote

Featured image In the run-up to the mid-term elections Atlantic political reporter Mollly Ball took a close look at our friend and now, since last week, Arkansas Senator-elect Tom Cotton “The making of a conservative superstar.” Ball is a diligent and skilled reporter, but the piece seemed to me a work of almost self-parodic liberal/media hostility. It annoyed me at the time; now I want to look back in cheer. Ball led »

McSally’s sally

Featured image When they finished counting the votes in Arizona’s Second Congressional District — if I have this right, it’s the redistricted version of the district formerly represented by Gabrielle Giffords — Republican challenger Martha McSally led incumbent Democrat Ron Barber by 161 votes. The final count is subject to a mandatory recount, but we have ground for hope that McSally’s lead will hold up. A tranche of votes discovered after the »

Senate Will Vote on Keystone to Help Landrieu

Featured image Next week, Harry Reid will hold a vote on the Keystone pipeline. Why? To help Mary Landrieu hang on to her Senate seat. Landrieu wants to posture as a pro-energy Keystone supporter, and Reid is happy to give her the opportunity. There is a nice irony here. Tom Steyer contributed (or promised to contribute, anyway) $100 million to anti-Keystone Democrats. The Democrats happily accepted his money and nearly all of »