2014 Election

The politics of immigration have flipped the Republicans’ way

Featured image I have argued that the surge across our border of young illegal immigrants from Central America has flipped the immigration debate. Now, a Gallup poll shows that the politics of immigration have also flipped. 17 percent now say that immigration is the top problem the U.S. faces. A month ago, only 5 percent saw immigration as our number one problem. Immigration is now effectively tied with “dissatisfaction with government” as »

Ernst and Braley tied in Iowa

Featured image A new NBC/Marist poll of the Iowa Senate race finds Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 43 percent. The poll is of registered voters. The NBC/Marist result is in line with the findings, viewed collectively, of three surveys conducted last month. A Quinnipiac poll had Braley ahead by 4; a Loras College poll had Ernst up by 6; and a Rasmussen poll gave Ernst a 1 point »

The handshake that was and the one that wasn’t

Featured image Texas Gov. Rick Perry greeted President Obama when he arrived in Texas today for two fundraisers. As I discussed here, Perry originally said he would not greet the president, proposing instead a meeting to discuss the illegal immigration crisis at the Texas border (and elsewhere). In the end, the two reached a compromise. Obama invited Perry to a roundtable discussion on immigration and reportedly agreed to a one-on-one meeting. Perry »

Dana Milbank’s fantasy

Featured image Dana Milbank, the Clown Prince of the Washington Post, argues that having an “all-Republican Congress” might help President Obama. By all-Republican Congress, Milbank means a majority Republican Senate to go along with the majority Republican House. Milbank reasons that with Republicans in control of both chambers, they would pass conservative legislation on matters such as immigration, health care, the budget, and abortion. Obama could then veto that legislation, thereby enhancing »

Obama Comes to Minnesota: A Sign of the Times

Featured image President Obama is in Minneapolis today. I know this because half of the city’s principal highways were closed down at rush hour and my commute was a nightmare. Obama will stay overnight and make more appearances tomorrow, so this is a major presidential visit. Much could be said about it–for example, Obama staged a meeting with a “middle-class” woman to show solidarity with those who are oppressed by his policies. »

Cochran leads McDaniel in early returns from Mississippi showdown [UPDATED -- COCHRAN WINS]

Featured image Tonight’s most important primary election is the runoff in Mississippi for the Republican Senate nomination. Incumbent Thad Cochran faces a stiff challenge from Chris McDaniel, the candidate of choice for the Tea Party and other staunch conservatives. Recent polls have shown McDaniel ahead, but with 37 percent of the precincts counted, Cochran leads by 53.5 to 46.5. In raw numbers, this translates to a little more than 6,000 which, of »

The Brad Pitt of the Republican Party?

Featured image One of our favorite candidates this year is Stewart Mills, who is running for Congress in Minnesota’s 8th District–northern Minnesota–against a weak one-term incumbent, Rick Nolan. We helped launch Stewart’s campaign by promoting his YouTube video in which he argues for 2nd Amendment rights and defends the dreaded “assault rifle.” When we get around to posting this year’s Power Line Pick Six–soon, I hope–Mills will be one of our choices. »

Is Thad Cochran clueless? Not entirely

Featured image Eliana Johnson reports that Sen. Thad Cochran, who is battling for his political life in Mississippi, didn’t get word of Dave Brat’s upset win over Eric Cantor. Asked on Friday about the House majority’s leader’s stunning defeat on Tuesday, the 76-year-old Cochran responded: “I don’t know what you’re talking about, what happened in Virginia?” Once informed of the result, Cochran rallied with this analysis: “Well, it happens. Some win, some »

Cantor’s defeat — Laura Ingraham’s role, and her take

Featured image There has been plenty of speculation about just why professor Dave Brat defeated Majority Leader Eric Cantor earlier this week. Was it down to immigration issues, disgust with Washington, an incumbent distracted by leadership responsibilities who just wasn’t much of a “retail politician,” or what? I’m persuaded by my friend Joe Asch who says our fellow Dartmouth alum Laura Ingraham played a decisive role. Joe cites the following evidence from »

Re: Eric Cantor

Featured image A reader writes with a timely expression of gratitude to Eric Cantor: Though I would have voted for Dave Brat due to the immigration issue, I just called Eric Cantor’s Washington office to express my gratitude for the work he has done over the past five years. Sometimes we forget how gloomy January 2009 was, with the Presidency and Congress (supermajority, no less) in liberal Democrat hands. He, John Boenher, »

Notes on Cantormageddon

Featured image Only last week in a local Richmond television interview, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor addressed immigration reform as follows: “I have told the president, there are some things we can work on together. We can work on the border security bill together, we can work on something like the kids.” This while the southwest United States is under invasion by an overwhelming wave of “kids” who have gotten the message. »

Frank Scaturro for Congress

Featured image Frank Scaturro first came to my attention as a historian. He’s the author of Grant Reconsidered, a brilliant defense of the presidency of Ulysses S. Grant, which I discussed here. He also wrote The Supreme Court’s Retreat from Reconstruction: A Distortion of Constitutional Jurisprudence, which I have not read. But Scaturro’s talents extend beyond the study of history to law and politics. He served as Counsel for the Constitution for »

Republicans still have slight edge in latest Nate Silver Senate forecast

Featured image Nate Silver, the reigning champion of election forecasting, has issued a new Senate forecast. He projects that the Republicans will gain 5.7 Senate seats. They need a gain of 5 to wrest control of the Senate, so Silver’s forecast gives the Republicans a better than 50 percent chance of accomplishing this. In his last forecast, Silver projected a Republican gain of 5.8 seats. Thus, he sees the overall shape of »

Ernst pulls even, or maybe ahead, in Iowa

Featured image Two new polls contain good news for those of us hoping to see the Republicans win the Iowa Senate seat being vacated by Tom Harkin. A Rasmussen poll has Republican Joni Ernst, fresh off of her victory earlier this week in the primary, in a dead heat with Democrat Bruce Braley (Ernst 45, Braley 44). Before the primary, Braley was leading Ernst by 4 to 8 points in the various »

American Crossroads poll puts Cotton five points ahead of Pryor

Featured image Although certain polls from April and early May suggested that Sen. Mark Pryor had opened up a large lead over Rep. Tom Cotton, more recent polling suggests that the race is neck-and-neck. I made that case here. Now, American Crossroads has released a survey showing Cotton with a 46-41 lead. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.39. American Crossroads is, of course, strongly pro-Cotton. In fact, it »

Mississippi’s Republican brawl too close to call [UPDATED -- runoff coming]

Featured image This is another primary day in the 2014 cycle. The most interesting race is the Republican Senate primary in Mississippi between longtime Senator Thad Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel, the Tea Party’s favorite in the race. I don’t believe we have written about this contest and, frankly, I have averted my eyes. It has been that distasteful. I’ve always thought, however, that Mississippi could do with a more conservative »

The Cotton-Pryor race: neck-and-neck after all

Featured image I was surprised in early April when two polls — one by New York Times/Kaiser, the other by Opinion Research Associates — showed Sen. Mark Pryor leading Rep. Tom Cotton by 10 points. Frankly, I didn’t believe that these polls accurately reflected the state of the race. But then, in early May, an NBC/Marist poll gave Pryor an 11 point lead, 51-40. Although Tom’s campaign pointed to internal polling that »