2016 Senate Elections

Dems marched off the cliff in lockstep

Featured image For the past eight years, I’ve admired the Democrats’ ability to maintain party discipline. Maybe it’s just a case of the grass looking greener on the other side, but I don’t think so. During the Obama years, the Dems almost never broke ranks. They stuck together even in the face of two shellackings in mid-term elections. During the Bush years, by contrast, you could almost always count on GOP Senators »

No Splitters

Featured image Before the election I was saying that one interesting thing to watch, especially if Trump lost as most of the polls forecast, is whether we’d see a return to split-ticket voting of the kind we used to see in the 1970s and 1980s. Several Republican Senate candidates distanced themselves from Trump with mixed results (like Toomey in PA and Ayotte in NH), while some House candidates in swingier districts campaigned »

Power Line picks — the scorecard

Featured image We want to thank all of our readers who contributed to one or more of our Power Line picks. Four of the six won last night, which isn’t bad considering that we picked three underdogs including one, Sen. Johnson, who many thought was a lost cause when we picked him. We didn’t quite match 2014 when five our our six candidates won. I view five as an ideal number. If »

After last night [with dittos by Paul]

Featured image With Donald Trump’s improbable victory last night, the Clinton Crime Family can retire from public life to enjoy its ill-gotten gains. Lady Hillary tastes the fruit of an incredibly bitter and humiliating defeat. Her zombie husband is now free to continue his “charitable” efforts and pursue other interests unimpeded by the need to keep up appearances. I pray that Donald Trump will honor the high office he has attained. As »

Senate update: Blunt and Toomey win

Featured image There is no longer any doubt that the Republicans will control the Senate regardless of how the presidential race goes. Roy Blunt has won in Missouri and Pat Toomey has won in Pennsylvania. Toomey’s win surprises me. But if had you told me that Donald Trump was going to run strongly in Pennsylvania, I would have picked Toomey to win. Actually, Toomey is running only about 0.5 points better than »

House (and Toomey) update [UPDATED TWICE]

Featured image Scott Garrett came up a little short in New Jersey-5. He’s losing by 11,000 votes with more than 90 percent counted. His opponent has been declared the winner by Politico. In Minnesota-8, Stuart Mills, another Power Line pick, trails by 3 points and about 10,000 votes with 60 percent counted. This contest is still up for grabs, I assume, but the incumbent Democrat has the edge. I haven’t seen any »

Senate update: Burr wins, Ayotte and Blunt lead [UPDATED] [JOHNSON WINS!]

Featured image Richard Burr has held his North Carolina Senate seat, according to Fox News. He’s about 5.5 points (and more than 200,000 votes) ahead with 70 percent of the vote in. Unless North Carolina is Virginia (and maybe even if it is) Burr’s lead seems insurmountable. That’s how Fox sees it. In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte leads by 3 points (and around 10,000 votes) with nearly half of the vote counted. »

Rubio wins Florida; Young leads Bayh in Indiana [Jeb congratulates Marco] [UPDATED, AGAIN]

Featured image Marco Rubio has been declared the winner of the Florida Senate race. Donald Trump once declared that Rubio couldn’t be elected dog-catcher in the Sunshine State. But today, Rubio will run far ahead of Trump there (the presidential race in Florida hasn’t been called). In Indiana, Rep. Todd Young has a double-digit lead over former Senator Evan Bayh. That’s with one-third of the vote in. As we noted recently, Bayh »

Good news from Wisconsin and Indiana

Featured image Hillary Clinton’s woes and Donald Trump’s revival figure to be good news for “down ballot” Republican candidates. I don’t think the House was ever going to flip, but not long ago the Senate seemed very likely to. Now, perhaps, the GOP will maintain control. I want to focus on two races — one that we have covered extensively and one I’m not sure we have discussed at all. In Wisconsin, »

South Dakota: A Beacon to the Nation [Updated With Video]

Featured image Politically, my home state is a model for the rest of the country. As the Associated Press notes, every statewide officeholder is a Republican, and both houses of the state’s legislature have Republican supermajorities. When Senator John Thune ran for re-election in 2010, the Democrats chose not to oppose him. This year–did you realize there was a Senate race going on in South Dakota?–the Democrats have come up with an »

Democrat Agrees to Spanish-Language Debate, Drops Out When He Realizes Opponent Speaks Spanish

Featured image The Florida Senate race has been good for some laughs in a generally grim election season. It pits incumbent Marco Rubio against former Republican Patrick Murphy, whose main qualification is inherited wealth. The candidates agreed to debate on Univision, an important Spanish-language outlet in south Florida. Alex Conant, Rubio’s press guy, sums up what ensued in this tweet: To recap: Dem candidate agrees to Spanish-language debate. Then drops out when »

A word from Ron Johnson

Featured image Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is a conservative stalwart and a Power Line pick in his race for reelection. He sends this message to Power Line readers: This is a critically important election that will decide not only control of the United States Senate, but the future of our country. In Wisconsin, voters have a clear choice — while I am a commonsense conservative plastics manufacturer with a record of »

Ron Johnson rallies in Wisconsin

Featured image Ron Johnson is a conservative hero. He’s also one of Power Line’s “picks” in this year’s congressional elections. Sen. Johnson has been trailing his opponent Russ Feingold throughout the campaign season. At times, Feingold led in the poll averages by about double digits. No longer. Two new polls show Johnson behind by only 2 points (Marquette poll) and 3 points (CBS YouGov). A third poll (Loras) has Johnson leading by »

Hillary to Restrict Second Amendment With Executive Orders?

Featured image James O’Keefe has done it again: he attended a Russ Feingold fundraiser in Silicon Valley, where one of the topics under discussion was gun control. O’Keefe recorded Feingold, the former senator who is running against Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, suggesting that as president Hillary Clinton would use executive orders to limit gun rights. The hostess of the event added that Hillary “wants to shut it down,” “it” being »

Re-elect Ron Johnson

Featured image Ron Johnson’s victory over Russ Feingold in 2010 was probably the highlight of that election night for me. Unlike in Illinois, the victorious Republican was a strong conservative. Unlike in Pennsylvania, the Republican defeated an entrenched incumbent and one of the most left-wing members of the Senate. Sen. Johnson has not disappointed in office. Despite representing a purple state, Johnson has been a staunch conservative. His lifetime rating by the »

The battle for the Senate

Featured image Real Clear Politics has a nice map that reflects its view of the battle for the Senate. It sees 47 seats as likely to be held by Democrats when the dust settles and 47 likely to be held by Republicans. Six seats are rated toss-ups. The six toss-ups are: Indiana (Young vs. Bayh) Pennsylvania (Toomey vs. McGinty) Nevada (Heck vs. Cortez Masto) North Carolina (Burr vs. Ross) New Hampshire (Ayotte »

Support Sen. Pat Toomey

Featured image George Will calls Sen. Pat Toomey’s race against Kate McGinty in Pennsylvania the “most consequential” of this year’s Senate contests. To understand its importance, look at Larry Sabato’s map of Senate races. As things stand, at least according to Sabato, a Toomey win probably gives Republicans the 50 seats needed to run the Senate if Donald Trump is elected president. And if Hillary Clinton is elected, a Toomey win probably »