New Hampshire primary

After last night

Featured image I offer the following observations and speculations in the spirit of inquiry following the results in the New Hampshire primary last night. I acknowledge that we are in the realm of opinion and that I may well be mistaken. These are my thoughts. Let me begin, however, in the realm of fact. New Hampshire runs an open primary with independents allowed to vote in the party of their choice. Turnout »

Trump wins and probably wins big [updated continuously]

Featured image The networks have called Donald Trump the winner on the Republican side, and it looks like the margin of victory will be large. Currently, John Kasich, who is in second place, has only half of Trump’s vote total. It’s a good win for Trump, but how good? Around the time of the Iowa primary, I speculated that Trump needs at least one-third of the vote in the early contests to »

A “good” night for Kasich?

Featured image Henry Enten at FiveThirtyEight writes: If you’re trying to read the tea leaves in the early results, you can already see how tonight could be a good one for John Kasich. He’s doing about as well as Jon Huntsman did in Lebanon in the western part of the state. If he can match Huntsman’s numbers in other places, it will probably be good enough for 17 percent statewide and second »

A tough night for Hillary [updated continuously]

Featured image As I write this, we’re about half an hour away from getting real election returns from New Hampshire. In the meantime, Fox News has put out some tantalizing exit poll results on the Democratic side. Almost one-third of voters in the Democratic primary told Fox that honesty/trustworthiness is the most important quality they’re looking for. Sanders won this group with more than 90 percent support. “Young” voters (I assume Fox »

How will Jeb do tomorrow? (and why it matters)

Featured image New Hampshire voters will answer several potentially consequential questions tomorrow: How badly will Sanders beat Clinton; what will Trump’s margin of victory be; what price (if any) will Rubio pay for repetition in debating? For me, though, the biggest question is: How well will Jeb Bush do? Here’s why. There has been much speculation about the degree of winnowing the Republican field will undergo after New Hampshire. In particular, how »