Will Abramoff Hurt the Democrats?
That's certainly not the conventional wisdom. But John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics thinks the Democrats' focus on the Abramoff scandal could cost them control of the House of Representatives:
Individual members caught in the crossfire will likely get wiped out, but the Democrats’ hope that this investigation leads to an overall voter revolt at the “culture of corruption” is probably just that….. hope. Ironically, by placing so much hope in the damage Abramoff might bring, Democrats could be blowing what otherwise is a fertile opportunity to pick up enough seats to recapture the House.But in this computer-tuned gerrymandered environment, with very few open races, the 15-seat pick up Democrats need is only really possible if they take the bull by the horns and actually propose something, ala the GOP’s 1994 "Contract With America.” Abramoff might end up being the narcotic that lulls them into a false sense of confidence and pulls them back from making the type of aggressive move that would put them in the position for a big election day. As of today, we’re looking at a status quo election where the Dems pick up 5-7 House seats and 2-3 Senate seats - and Republicans get back to the business of running the country in January 2007.
