Sarkozy in the saddle
It's been clear since day one of his presidency that Nicolas Sarkozy would soon have a showdown with the powerful French unions. After all, even Sarkozy's reactionary predecessor Jacques Chirac recognized the need to reform the staggering retirement packages that key unions have secured for their members. Chirac, though, was unwilling to fight for reform after 1995, when strikes paralyzed the country. Thus, the problem was left for Sarkozy, and throughout his presidential campaign he signaled his clear intention to take it on.
The question was: would Sarkozy succeed where Chirac had failed? I was less than confident that he would until I heard Sarkozy speak at the French embassy earlier this month. In talking to embassy personnel after Sarkozy's speech (which itself inspired confidence), I was told that nearly all of Sarkozy’s main ideas for reform have at least 60 percent support, and that the French are finally fed up with the status quo and with obstructionist resistance to change by special interest groups. As I suggested at the time, Sarkozy may just be "the right man at the right moment."
A week ago, French railroad workers went on strike. Soon, they were joined by other government workers. But this time, public opinion was not with the strikers and Sarkozy therefore had the winning hand. Now, the New York Sun reports that the rail strike is "clearly crumbling, as workers began returning to work in large numbers and union branches conceded that support for the dispute is collapsing." As one union leader put it, "the strike is no longer the solution; the strike strategy is no longer winning."
The interesting question to me is: how will Sarkozy play his victory? As David Frum recalls, Ronald Reagan's win over striking air traffic controllers played a substantial role in strengthening his presidency. So too with Margaret Thatcher's dramatic victory over striking coal miners. A Sarkozy win would be more significant than Reagan's and at least as significant as Thatcher's.
Neither Reagan nor Thatcher allowed the defeated unions to save face, but as the New York Sun story suggests, Sarkozy (who, ostensibly, was aloof during the strike) seems inclined to play things differently by offering the government unions a fig leaf. This is Sarkozy's style -- recall that he brought several Socialists into his government. Moreover, as Sarkozy made clear in his speech at the French embassy, he's looking far down the road to a series of future reforms and would rather not make too many blood enemies. As long as it's apparent that Sarkozy won this round -- and it is -- an overly triumphalist posture may not be the best option as he prepares to take on the French education establishment next.
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