Hillary Clinton's one chance of being nominated by the Democrats is to persuade super-delegates that she likely can defeat John McCain and that Barack Obama likely cannot. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post considers this matter from an interesting perspective, turning to Republican strategists for their views. The results are mixed. Some strategists consider Obama easier to defeat, others see Clinton as the more vulnerable foe. Cillizza concludes that “it's almost impossible to know what the dynamics of an Obama-McCain or Clinton-McCain race would be, much less try to divine which dynamic works better for Democrats hoping to reclaim the White House.”

I think Cillizza is correct, at least on the facts as they appear right now. And as long as this is the case, it’s difficult to see the super-delegates denying Obama the nomination.

UPDATE: One new fact that would assist Clinton with the super-delegates would be a crushing victory over Obama in Pennsylvania. However, there is evidence that this race is tightening. The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama trailing by only 5 percentage points. Survey USA has Clinton's lead at 12 points, but that too is an improvement for Obama in relation to the RCP average.

Of course, some polls showed the Ohio primary tightening before Clinton won it decisively. However, three developments provide some reason to believe that Clinton's margin is shrinking. First, Clinton's potentially disastrous fib about her trip to Bosnia; second, Senator Casey's endorsement of Obama; third the fact that (as I've heard it) Obama is outspending Clinton by something like 5 to 1 in the state.

A FINAL THOUGHT: Some may take issue with the title of this piece, arguing that, with the convention taking place in August, time is hardly running out. That's probably a fair point. However, Hillary's best hope of making her "electability" case to super-delegates is through the upcoming wave of primaries. If she fails to meet pretty high expectations in these contests, one can easily imagining a critical mass of super-delegates committing to Obama pretty quickly in order to end the agony.

Posted by Paul at 11:30 PM  |    |